US Viewpoint - Potential Impact of Coronavirus Outbreak February 2020
The number of people infected by the coronavirus is nearly nine times more than the SARS epidemic of 2003. While nearly two times more people have died from COVID-19, the death rate among those infected by SARS was much higher.
Infections are expected to peak sometime in March.
The net drag on U.S. GDP growth should be limited and CBRE’s outlook for 2020 is not materially affected.
Short-term commercial real estate impacts likely will be in the hotel sector and some retail centers in markets frequently visited by Chinese tourists, such as San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York City.
Downside potential exists if there is longer term disruption to China’s export supply chains, which feed certain U.S. industry segments.